Recent research on clinical trial success rates that caught our eye:

We are especially encouraged to see a group from MIT carrying forward the torch of drug likelihood-of-approval (LOA) analysis. That group of researchers put together this great analysis of what they call Probability of Success (POS) of clinical trials. The concept is the same as LOA, but deepens and broadens the analysis.

Key findings from the MIT research:

  • Trials using biomarkers exhibit almost twice the overall POS compared to trials without biomarkers (10.3% vs. 5.5%). While the use of biomarkers in the stratification of patients improves the POS in all phases, it is most significant in Phases 1 and 2.
  • We found that trials using biomarkers for patient stratification have higher success rates, especially in the area of oncology. Given the active development of biomarkers for the area of oncology, we expect that the dismal approval rates of oncology will improve.
  • A couple of years ago we teamed up with analysts from BIO and Informa to bring you our Clinical Development Success Rate research. It was referenced in Mary Meeker’s 2017 InternetTrends Report (on slide 304). Stay tuned for a refresh of the study, we’re working on it now.

Please have a look and let us know your thoughts in the comments section.

Photo: Mary Meeker, an American venture capitalist and former Wall Street securities analyst. Her primary work is on Internet and new technologies.